These are some of the posts that can catch me some grief from family. Spending more than 5 minutes thinking about the 5th outfielder or “first bat off the bench” guy is probably something most fans won’t do until the post-season - but being unemployed does afford me some extra time so enjoy:
Using Baseball Prospectus’ depth chart projections the Corner OF/1B position will be a battle for as many as 300 plate appearances and could end being the most significant upgrade over the 2008 bench. Most of the bench at this stage is already set:
4OF: Rocco Baldelli (R) replacing Coco Crisp (S) - Its a little up in the air if Baldelli can give the Sox the 361 AB Crisp gave them last year (He hasnt been healthy enough to get there since 2006). Fortunately the Sox won’t need him to unless Ellsbury struggles.
MI: Jed Lowrie (S) / Julio Lugo (R) replacing Alex Cora (L) - Alex Cora for all his “baseball intelligence” was not good in any of his years in Boston. His defense was outstandingly overrated and his bat was abysmal, having his best year last year with an 87 OPS+. Whoever loses this battle will still be an upgrade - Lugo has the better speed (though not always the smartest/most efficient baserunner) and could be effective as a pinch runner.
C-2: Josh Bard (S) / Kottaras (L) replacing Kevin Cash (R) - Cash hit over .200 for the first time in his career last year. It shouldnt be hard to at least equal the sub-Mendoza stats. I may have to take a deeper look at this one later.
Which means there’s one spot left: the “first guy off the bench” spot. Theo and Co. have said that one thing they place a lot of value is positional flexibility - which is one of the reasons Sean Casey isn’t here anymore (well that and his complete inability to hit for power). Mark Kotsay was brought back to serve that role - but will now be out at the beginning of the season recovering from a back injury. An additional depth signing was made bringing in Brad Wilkerson as additional depth for the minors joining two other sluggers. Chris Carter, the player we received in the Wily Mo Pena trade - can mash but is a complete butcher in the field. Jeff Bailey on the other hand plays a more respectable 1b, LF and even RF and won the International League MVP award last season.
I’ll go ahead and say that Chris Carter doesn’t have much of a chance of cracking this lineup unless something Ortiz has to miss significant time and the Sox plug Carter in that spot (still very unlikely - as the Sox would probably go to Baldelli).
Which leaves the last roster spot open to either Brad Wilkerson (LHB) and Jeff Bailey (RHB) until Mark Kotsay (LHB) can return. The Sox will likely be tempted to give the job to either Wilkerson on Kotsay to ensure they have a left handed bat on the bench - but I think this isnt maximizing the potential of this roster spot.
minorleaguesplits.com has a handy tool that converts a players minor league stats into what they would be in the majors and it puts just into context just how good Jeff Bailey’s year was last year.
Just for comparisons sake here are last years stats for the three:
Jeff Bailey (Translated from PAW to BOS)
.261/.349/.473
Mark Kotsay (ATL + BOS)
.276/.329/.403
Brad Wilkerson (SEA + TOR)
.220/.308/.326
And while Kotsay and Wilkerson would give you the match-up advantage (LHB vs RHP), neither of them were really that great at it. Kotsay OPS’d .777 whereas Wilkerson only managed a .649
Even though Bailey is weaker against RHB his translated stats from last year indicate he would be good for a .242/.348/.450 line against RHP.
Not to mention he’s mashing this Spring.