jasonpiques.com

Link.

Oh yeah it’s good.

Mike,

You’ll always have a place in the heart of Bruins fans - maybe not for your play on the ice, but in the stands. You’re also currently the last Bruins coach to lead the team to the Stanley Cup finals - a definite bonus. I mean you’re even a local guy too so you even get some more extra points there.

And hey, you know what, maybe I am being a little too sensitive when you say disparaging things towards one of my favorite Bruins, Mr. Axelsson. But I just need to know, exactly what did P.J. do to earn such scorn? Yes he was being misused on the power play, but that was simply due to a lack of left-handed shooters on this team - A problem since solved by acquiring Mark Recchi. In fact I’m sure if you asked P.J. about it, he’d probably tell you himself that he shouldn’t ever be on the power play. He is however, one of the premier defensive forwards in the league, and if the Selke trophy actually was awarded for the best defensive forward, Axy probably would have at least been nominated at one point in his career. He’s consistently rated in The Hockey News as being one of the leagues most underrated players and is perhaps the perfect 3rd or 4th line left-winger.

Yet you still deride the lone Swede for his lack of a scoring touch. Of course being someone like yourself, who has spent so much time in the league I am sure you would have a natural eye for what true talent looks like. I mean lets take a look at your savy trades as GM of the New York Islanders:

Trading Wade Redden (with Dominic Rhodes) for Martin Straka, Bryan Berard, and Don Beaupre.
This one looks like a win - except Straka got claimed after you waived him before ever playing a game for the Islanders, Berard was dealt for 33 games of Felix Potvin (later traded for Kevin Weekes and Dave Scatchard).

Trading Beaupre with Kirk Muller for Ken Belanger.
Loss.

Traded Wendel Clark and Mathieu Schneider for a pile of garbage and Toronto’s 1st round pick (Roberto Luongo)
Well that one is a nice move Mike!

Traded Zigmund Palffy, Brian Smolinski and a bag of pucks for Olli Jokinen, two also-rans and a first round pick.
Considering ownership was forcing your hand in this one, I still say its a score considering you were able to pick up a talent like Jokinen and a 1st rounder. Granted the 1st rounder (#8 overall) was Taylor Pratt, but that was a weak draft - so we’ll cut you some slack.

Traded Luongo and Jokinen for Oleg Kvasha and Mark Parrish.
Wow - well. Two positive trades lead to a franchise crushing negative. But lets keep going.

Traded Zdeno Chara and others including the #2 overall pick (Jason Spezza) for Alexei Yashin.
Another amazingly terrible trade - though not quite as bad as dealing Luongo and Jokinen.

Selected Rick DiPietro #1 in the 2000 entry draft, instead of Dany Heatley or Marian Gaborik.
I wish I could cut you some slack here. Maybe you saw a kid from your home state and thought he could be special. He very well could be above average some day. Meanwhile Heatley and Gaborik are already All-stars.

Mike, for a guy with such a willingness to deal, you may end up going down in history as having the worst eye for talent a NHL General Manager ever has had. You could assemble an all-star team with the talent you managed to trade away from New York and in doing so have buried the Islanders with so many bad trades that they remain at least a few seasons away from any kind of relevance.

So please leave the talent evaluation to the guys who know what they’re doing. Axelsson doesn’t score many goals - but he’s not out there to do that. That doesn’t mean he is without value.

From 2006-2008

Player 1:

33-19 W-L
465.2 IP
3.27 ERA (LgERA 4.32)
1.185 WHIP
8.6 K/9
2.1 BB/9
4.0 K/BB

Player 2:

38-26 W-L
522.2 IP
3.94 ERA (LgERA 4.43)
1.284 WHIP
9.0 K/9
3.3 BB/9
2.7 K/BB

Player 1 is John Smoltz who will cost the Red Sox somewhere between $5.5-10.5m

Player 2 is A.J. Burnett who will cost the Yankees $16.5 this season and the next four.

These are some of the posts that can catch me some grief from family. Spending more than 5 minutes thinking about the 5th outfielder or “first bat off the bench” guy is probably something most fans won’t do until the post-season - but being unemployed does afford me some extra time so enjoy:

Using Baseball Prospectus’ depth chart projections the Corner OF/1B position will be a battle for as many as 300 plate appearances and could end being the most significant upgrade over the 2008 bench. Most of the bench at this stage is already set:

4OF: Rocco Baldelli (R) replacing Coco Crisp (S) - Its a little up in the air if Baldelli can give the Sox the 361 AB Crisp gave them last year (He hasnt been healthy enough to get there since 2006). Fortunately the Sox won’t need him to unless Ellsbury struggles.

MI: Jed Lowrie (S) / Julio Lugo (R) replacing Alex Cora (L) - Alex Cora for all his “baseball intelligence” was not good in any of his years in Boston. His defense was outstandingly overrated and his bat was abysmal, having his best year last year with an 87 OPS+. Whoever loses this battle will still be an upgrade - Lugo has the better speed (though not always the smartest/most efficient baserunner) and could be effective as a pinch runner.

C-2: Josh Bard (S) / Kottaras (L) replacing Kevin Cash (R) - Cash hit over .200 for the first time in his career last year. It shouldnt be hard to at least equal the sub-Mendoza stats. I may have to take a deeper look at this one later.

Which means there’s one spot left: the “first guy off the bench” spot. Theo and Co. have said that one thing they place a lot of value is positional flexibility - which is one of the reasons Sean Casey isn’t here anymore (well that and his complete inability to hit for power). Mark Kotsay was brought back to serve that role - but will now be out at the beginning of the season recovering from a back injury. An additional depth signing was made bringing in Brad Wilkerson as additional depth for the minors joining two other sluggers. Chris Carter, the player we received in the Wily Mo Pena trade - can mash but is a complete butcher in the field. Jeff Bailey on the other hand plays a more respectable 1b, LF and even RF and won the International League MVP award last season.

I’ll go ahead and say that Chris Carter doesn’t have much of a chance of cracking this lineup unless something Ortiz has to miss significant time and the Sox plug Carter in that spot (still very unlikely - as the Sox would probably go to Baldelli).

Which leaves the last roster spot open to either Brad Wilkerson (LHB) and Jeff Bailey (RHB) until Mark Kotsay (LHB) can return. The Sox will likely be tempted to give the job to either Wilkerson on Kotsay to ensure they have a left handed bat on the bench - but I think this isnt maximizing the potential of this roster spot.

minorleaguesplits.com has a handy tool that converts a players minor league stats into what they would be in the majors and it puts just into context just how good Jeff Bailey’s year was last year.

Just for comparisons sake here are last years stats for the three:

Jeff Bailey (Translated from PAW to BOS)
.261/.349/.473

Mark Kotsay (ATL + BOS)
.276/.329/.403

Brad Wilkerson (SEA + TOR)
.220/.308/.326

And while Kotsay and Wilkerson would give you the match-up advantage (LHB vs RHP), neither of them were really that great at it. Kotsay OPS’d .777 whereas Wilkerson only managed a .649

Even though Bailey is weaker against RHB his translated stats from last year indicate he would be good for a .242/.348/.450 line against RHP.

Not to mention he’s mashing this Spring.